The Treasury bill market in Ghana is expected to face continued pressure in the near term, with yields likely to trend upward despite early signs of disinflation.
According to Databank Research, investors are exercising caution ahead of the 2026 Budget, which will provide clearer guidance on the government’s borrowing strategy and fiscal consolidation, critical factors for balancing demand and supply in the debt market.
Last week’s auction underscored these challenges, marking the fourth consecutive undersubscription. The Treasury raised GHS 4.50 billion against a target of GHS 6.83 billion, covering only 66% of planned issuance and 68% of upcoming maturities totaling GHS 6.65 billion.
Yields rose across the T-bill curve, reflecting tight market conditions. The 91-day and 182-day bills climbed 11 basis points to 10.93% and 12.61%, respectively, while the 364-day bill increased 7 basis points to 13.02%.
Databank notes that until the 2026 Budget clarifies fiscal policy, investor caution is likely to persist, keeping yields elevated despite ongoing disinflation.
